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Monday, April 25, 2011

Why high gas prices could be good for all of us

It seems that everywhere I look these days there are doomsday stories of how we are going to see $5 or $6 prices for a gallon of gasoline by the end of the summer.  Fox News runs stories on this topic about every 12-15 minutes and seems to be trying to speculate that higher gas prices will be the down fall of Obama's re-election bid in 2012.  CNN has spent a fair amount of air time on the topic as well with a slightly more positive spin at times.  I have seen print press articles too numerous to count and it seems to be soaking up a fair amount of bandwidth online as well.  Obama even appointed a commission to look into price fixing or other such ways that we could be getting gouged at the pump.  There certainly is no shortage of discussion on this topic.  There are a multitude of reasons behind this increase in gas prices and to avoid a dissertation on supply and demand and economics I will not cover that here.  The reality is that the price of a gallon of gas is already "high" and will get much "higher".  I put those in quotations because we still pay relatively little compared to what other countries pay.  An immediate example would be Bermuda (a lovely place I just visited) where gas prices are hovering at $8 to $9 per gallon.  In most European countries the price of a gallon of gas is similar to Bermuda but usually a slight bit less.  For instance, in England the prices are running around $7 - $8 per gallon (though they sell it by the liter or litre on that side of the pond).

As a driver of a gigantic truck that gets an EPA estimated 14 mpg city and 19 mpg highway, I'll be the first to say that I wouldn't necessarily welcome such a scenario.  It would certainly cause a lot of inconveniences and there would be plenty of adjustments that would need to be made.  And I will be the first to admit that the rising prices have already started to make a small but measurable amount of impact on my day to day driving decisions.  I'm being a bit more mindful of that little area on the instrument cluster that gives the average and instant estimated mpg.  But with the estimated price increased that may unfold through the next season or two there will be more significant changes to come.  But what will those changes be both short term and long term and what will be the consequences?

The first and most obvious change people are likely to make will be something similar to what I have already started doing.  People will start using the brake less and accelerating a little less vigorously.  The next accommodation will be that trips will be bundled or avoided altogether if possible.  A more drastic measure would be to trade in that gas guzzler for a smaller car with higher efficiency.  We saw a slight bit of that the last time gas prices soared but it was really artificially boosted by the tremendously costly "Cash for Clunkers" government program.  However, if we see sustained prices in the $5 - $6 range we may very well see more people that have no choice but to travel by automobile starting to trade in some of that extra size and luxury for some extra efficiency and affordability.  If these changes are sustained over an even longer period of time then more drastic changes will come.  Eventually those that live within shorter distances of their needed destinations may choose to use a bicycle or moped or even go biped (walk) when physically possible.  Over a longer term, people may even choose to live closer to their needed destinations to avoid the need for travel by automobile.  All these are viable options to minimize gasoline consumption in the near and long term in an effort to control household costs associated with its consumption. 

But how on Earth could all those changes be considered a GOOD thing for all of us?  I know the premise of paying more for a commodity and having to make unwanted changed in our lives to minimize the negative financial impact sounds utterly absurd but hear me out.

The first change that I mentioned above is likely already being instituted on a fairly large scale.  Do you try not to stop for that red light but rather coast slowly up to it trying to avoid the dreaded full stop?  Are you being a little more mindful of how you pull out at that 4-way stop trying to conserve just a little fuel?  Have you checked your tire pressure shooting for that optimum 32 psi to maximize mileage?  Then you are already taking part in the changes.  Congratulations.  Not only are you protecting your wallet in exchange for a few seconds added to your arrival time, you are also reducing your greenhouse gas emissions.  In my gigantic truck, I can easily go from about 13.5-14mpg in city driving to about 15.5-16mpg simply by obeying the speed limit, minimizing brake usage, using "rolling stops" to avoid having to start from a standstill and accelerating judiciously.  I haven't even seen a measurable change in my arrival times but my fuel mileage has increased by about 12%.  If I'm spewing 12% less greenhouse gases/CO2 into our environment, that has to be good right?  That's a very tangible improvement in my "carbon footprint" and it actually saves me money.  How many "green" products can you go buy that actually save you money over alternative products?  I can't think of any.  But here is one setting right in front of our faces and we're acting like it's some sort of punishment.  I guess a cooler, cleaner Earth could be thought of as a positive, right?

Now let's think more long term.  The next change I mentioned was bundling trips or avoiding them altogether.  Sounds like a bummer, huh?  You can't just jump in your cars and ride out to the shopping center to browse around and buy things you don't really need?  Have to make a list and check it twice before heading out to Wal-Mart or your favorite local grocery store?  I guess it could be thought of as a minor inconvenience.  Or you could appreciate the fact that when you do get out on the road there will be less traffic.  You could appreciate the fact that the roads aren't as torn up with pot holes and worn down at the edges because the traffic load is lighter.  In a perfect world, the state might even cut taxes because the upkeep of the roads wouldn't be as expensive with less traffic.  You might even get fewer traffic tickets.  I know it may seem outrageous but avoiding all those trips may even open up a little quality time to spend with family at home just enjoying their company.  Heck, you may even save more than expected when you don't buy that spectacular new gadget at Super Mall 3000 because you weren't needlessly browsing the stores.  I guess all those could potentially be seen as positives, right?

The next thing likely to happen would be trading in larger and less efficient vehicles for smaller and more efficient versions.  As mentioned before, we saw a fair amount of this during the "Cash for Clunkers" program but that rise in gas prices was so short lived that it wasn't really a sustained change.  When you couple that with the incentivized reason to buy, it was even less impressive.  But on a positive note, the last surge in prices did coerce the American car companies into developing some fairly impressive new smaller and more efficient models.  GM has started to roll out its ground breaking new Chevy Volt which has the potential to be an all electric model if driven less than about 60 or so miles per day.  I say "the potential to be" due to the fact it has an on board gas engine if extended range driving becomes a necessity.   Ford has rolled out some impressive compact models getting in the range of 40mpg.  Chrysler is on the verge of starting to import Fiat models from Europe that have a proven track record and are small and very efficient.  I personally can't wait to start seeing the Fiat 500 on roads here.  It is a sharp little ride.  If the masses start to trade in their larger vehicles for more efficient versions, the American car manufacturers are in a much better position to capitalize on that than they were before.  This could serve to help stabilize the American auto industry if a significant percentage of auto traders choose these models.  And even if they don't most companies like Toyota and Nissan have American factories and use American parts in percentages equivalent to and sometimes even more than their American counterparts.  And we haven't even mentioned the decrease in "greenhouse gas" emissions with these changes.  Even if people chose mopeds or public transportation we would see big decreases in greenhouse gases as well.  I guess stabilizing the American auto market and cutting back on greenhouse gases to protect our Earth could be thought of as a good thing, right?

Let's get more drastic, shall we?  Let's say we go 2-3 years with gas prices sustained in the $6 range.  This would motivate many more people to use bicycles or walking as alternative transportation solutions.  With the explosion of obesity in this country (no pun intended), many maladies have come along with it.  The number of people suffering from diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol and heart disease are increasing at an alarming rate.  If we don't get a handle on the obesity epidemic we may very well become the first generation in history to have a shorter lifespan than the generation that preceded it.  That would be an unspeakable tragedy.  In my opinion, the availability of incredibly cheap transportation by automibile has played a part in contributing to the high obesity rates.  It has become so cheap and easy to jump in a car and go wherever we want that no one even considers "manual" transportation any more.  In fact, the existence of such cheap transportation has caused us to construct an environment where it has become almost impossible to use "manual" transportation.  By building our cities out into the suburbs, we have limited the viability of this as an option for transportation.  The distances are too great and the safety is a definite concern.  But if we make the change to bicycles and walking for alternative means of transportation we can take a big step in fighting these diseases.  There are mountains of research showing that increased activity levels delays the onset and curbs the progression of diabetes in obese individuals.  There are also mountains of research showing that higher activity levels have a negative correlation with obesity (i.e. more activity decreases the likelihood of having diabetes).  If people start to choose bikes and feet for their transportation we could potentially cut off the obesity epidemic and decrease the number of people with diabetes.  I guess less obesity and less disease could be thought of as good things, right?

What if people started to live closer to their work?  When I lived in Lexington, Kentucky there was a lot of discussion about urban sprawl.  Lexington and the surrounding areas have a rich tradition of horse farms.  A lot of effort was made to reduce "urban sprawl" to protect those farms.  Unfortunately, the only thing that was really accomplished was the creation of cookie cutter neighborhoods with zero lot line.  In many of the neighborhoods there, you could literally stand between two houses and be able to touch them both at the same time.  And there were endless rows of houses like that.  "Urban sprawl" is a concept that nearly every city has been unable to get much control over.  The bottom line is that people want to have a yard and as long as they can afford it then that is what they will have.  But with sustained high gas prices, it is a very real possibility that people will no longer be able to afford those little pink houses that have made up the American dream for so long.  If transportation via auto starts eating up a significant portion of the American family budget, then people will have no choice but to live closer to their work which would effectively halt urban sprawl.  Maybe we have finally stumbled on the panacea for urban sprawl.  Maybe we finally have the reason to stop paving paradise and putting up parking lots.  Maybe we can finally stop encroaching ever further on wildlife habitat.  I guess those could be seen as good things, right?

But what about business?  How is business going to be affected by surging energy prices?  Well, you have me there.  Businesses large and small will be affected and the majority in a negative way.  Wal-Mart will no longer be able to truck your Heinz ketchup from Pittsburgh to Los Angeles without a hefty mark up because that transportation will be pretty costly.  McDonald's will have to increase their dollar menu to a 2 dollar menu because the cost of transporting buns and burgers will be drastically higher.  Your local convenience store will have to charge more for your Coke and Snickers because it too has to be trucked in at an increased cost.  In fact, the cost of nearly every tangible good will likely increase in a substantial amount.  All that seems bad, huh?  So where is the positive?  We'd likely see an increased demand for products made locally because of the competitive advantage conferred by not having to be transport their goods as far.  That increased demand could possibly create the economic circumstances needed to spur local business development and small business growth which have historically been the engine of economic recovery.  It's possible that could lead our economy out of its prolonged funk.  We'd likely see more locally grown fruits and vegetables available.  Who needs to buy blackberries from South America that have been transported halfway around the world at considerable cost when you can buy blackberries from the Chesterfield Berry Farm at a fraction of the cost?  As an added benefit, there would be less need for spray pesticides and preservatives because of the decreased time from harvest to store shelf to kitchen table.  Existing small business would likely see record growth.  Instead of buying that more expensive Miller Lite trucked in from Milwaukee you just might buy that Legend Brown Ale made locally here in your hometown at a fraction of the cost.  I guess at least some of those things could be seen as a positive, right?

So, there you have it.  After what has seemed like a non-stop major news media onslaught of negativity and doomsday predictions if gas prices continue to go up and stay that way, I just wanted to point out that maybe not all of it would be doom and gloom.  If we choose to look hard enough and in the right way, we can see the positive in anything out there.  After all, that's what gets us through the day anyway.  Life isn't about having everything that makes you happy.  It's about learning to be happy with what you have.  I choose to be happy no matter what.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Where My Parents Got It Right

As most of you already know, my wife teaches a 5th grade gifted education class at a local elementary school.  She has about 10 years of experience teaching in a variety of classroom settings ranging from "inner city" to "suburban privileged."  She has truly enjoyed and appreciated seeing the broad spectrum of educational settings and has come to appreciate her current position very much.  As you can imagine, she has also seen the spectrum of behavioral issues including what likely represents the entire range of children with ADHD from mild to wild.  As you would imagine, some of those experiences have been difficult and some have been quite rewarding.  She has seen children go from barely functional to fully integrated into the classroom setting due to the miracle of modern medicines.  Unfortunately, she has also seen a considerable number of children who seemed to have no improvement on medications but the parents were still convinced they were necessary and efficacious although there was no tangible evidence to support that.

As nearly all of you know, I am a physician working towards specializing in both Internal Medicine and Pediatrics.  I have certainly seen no shortage of parents bringing their children into the Pediatric Clinic for evaluation of possible ADHD and have been involved in managing ADHD enough to have some degree of comfort with it.  I have seen and evaluated children that I felt undoubtedly had signs and symptoms consistent with a diagnosis of ADHD.  I have prescribed medicines for some of those children and have gotten reports back from parents that the medications were helping immensely.  As you can see, I believe that ADHD is a real diagnosis/condition.  I choose those words carefully, though.  I feel that ADHD is not a "disorder" but rather is on the spectrum of normal behavior with a tendency towards the extreme end.  I believe strongly that it overlaps with a number of true psychiatric disorders in many cases and that is unfortunate because it leads to negative stereotyping and labeling of children afflicted with the condition.  I believe strongly that it is extremely over-diagnosed and that medications are thrown at a number of children/families in haphazard fashion. 

We live in a world today that demands a diagnosis for every subtle nuance in behavior or any deviation from "normal" whatever that may mean.  This has led to an explosion in the number of diagnoses for every type of condition ranging from seasonal allergies to autism spectrum disorders to restless leg syndrome to fibromyalgia to, yes, even ADHD.  Many things that would likely have resulted in a stern "talking to" or a swift swat to the bottom in days of yore now result in a diagnosis and prescription.  This is a little unfortunate because it has alleviated the need for a lot of children today to take responsibility for their own behavior.  It prevents children from adapting to their personal shortcomings and devising ways to enable them to be functional and successful human beings without the need for pharmacologic or social assistance.  I'd like to relate one particular example of this happening.

One of my wife's students this year carries a diagnosis of ADHD and is on medicine.  OK, more than one but for the purposes of this story one in particular.  He is undoubtedly a talented and intelligent child as many children with "ADHD" are.  He has qualified for the magnet gifted education program in the area where we live and by my wife's account has been a more than capable student even in the competitive environment that exists in the gifted education program.  Unfortunately, his grades have suffered to some extent as a result of his ADHD type behaviors.  He has missed several homework assignments because he has neglected to write down the assignments and so he didn't know what they were when he got home and therefore could not possibly complete them.  Of course, his parents are highly concerned about this and scheduled a meeting with the school principal and his primary teacher (my wife).  At the meeting, his parents requested that each of his teachers help out by writing down his homework assignments for him and sending them home so that the parents could then prompt him to do his homework.  On the surface, this may sound like a reasonable request but when thinking about it more deeply I take issue with it for a number of reasons.  First, it is an unreasonable demand to make for the teachers.  Why should it be the responsibility of the teacher to write down his assignments for him?  Isn't that part of the assignment - learning how to be responsible enough to write it down and then remember to do it?  Secondly, where does that responsibility end?  Each of the three 5th grade gifted teachers at the school where my wife works has roughly 30 students.  Should they each be responsible for writing down the assignments of 30 students to help them remember?  Thirdly, doesn't it give him an unfair advantage if he has someone helping him remember his assignments and reducing his need to be responsible?  As if that wasn't enough problems with this request, I have still more.  I wonder when exactly these parents are going to decide to teach this child how to be responsible.  I wonder when they are going to let him develop his own adaptations and overcome his shortcomings.  I wonder when they are going to let him fail so that he might learn from that failure.

Let me be clear about ADHD and me.  There is no doubt that if I was growing up in today's world I would be labeled as having ADHD.  I displayed all the characteristic behaviors early on in life.  I was a handful for my teachers not because I wasn't capable but because I was disinterested and easily distracted, a "troublemaker" or whatever you want to call it.  I made mostly good grades up through high school not because of my diligence but because I was intelligent enough that I didn't really have to do much work to keep up.  I got easy A's in classes that could hold my attention and nearly flunked those that didn't hold my attention and I didn't really care either way.  I got a "D" the first semester of my freshman year in high school in a typewriting class (yeah, we used real typewriters) because I just wasn't interested in the class and decided to talk to my friends and be disruptive because that was more fun.  I got a "C" in high school Chemistry because I didn't like the teacher and wasn't all that into it at the time.  I got a "B" in 8th grade Science class even though I had A's on every assignment because I didn't turn in my folder of all my work.  Not turning in folders was a recurring theme in many of my classes and I lost a ton of easy points because it was a lot of work for a kid with "ADHD." Keeping up with a lot of papers was difficult and I reasoned that it didn't really reflect any level of intelligence anyway so I just didn't even attempt to do it.  That really drove my parents crazy.  And let me be the first to say I absolutely never did homework in junior or senior high school.  I managed to get through high school relatively unscathed in spite of myself.  I then landed in a small college for undergrad.  I didn't really apply myself there either for a number of reasons.  When I felt like it I could do relatively well but I rarely felt like it.  I preferred to party my way through school, hanging out with friends and having fun and very infrequently studying.  I did start doing some homework but just enough to get by.  But still no one was forcing me into performing well in school and that was probably a good thing.  By that time, my mom had passed away and my dad was relatively hands off with directing my life (again probably a good thing).  Eventually I would graduate with a less than stellar GPA and a Bachelor's Degree in Business Administration.  I ended up working for a few years before deciding to truly get my life together (maturing?).  Eventually I would develop some coping mechanisms in part due to a number of activities I was involved in and life experiences and probably the aging process itself.  I then decided to go back to school and got a Bachelor's Degree in Chemistry and gained acceptance to Medical School. 

I am truly thankful for my parents approach to all the problems I gave them.  Rather than cajole me into doing every little assignment and having my teachers write down my homework assignments, they were able to practice enough restraint to let me learn from my mistakes.  And they did let me make plenty of mistakes.  And it did take a long time for me to get myself together.  I know it was VERY hard for my mom to sort of stand on the sidelines and let me find my way all while her health was dwindling.  I know very well that if I had managed to listen to her and do all those things she said I should do that I would have been a few years ahead of schedule from where I am today.  And, yes, my folks were right a lot of the time.  But the place they got it most right was in having the patience to let me find out for myself how to do things, to develop my own coping mechanisms, to let me find my way and even to fail when necessary so that I might learn what that is like and how to keep it from happening when it really counts. 

I wonder how kids like the little boy in my wife's class are going to turn out.  How can we possibly expect him to mature when he has no reason to?  How can we possibly expect him to figure out a way to remember to do his homework if his parents get the accommodation they are requesting and his teachers have to write down his assignments?  Is it even a big deal if he gets a "B" or God forbid a "C" in 5th grade because he forgets to do his homework?  Isn't that the best possible place to learn that responsibility?  I mean, who really cares about this kids grades in 5th grade?  In the grand scheme of things, they are absolutely meaningless.  They're not going to prevent him from getting into college, right?  Is his ego so fragile that he can't handle a fail here and there so that he can have the opportunity to make adjustments and learn from those mistakes?  Are his parents being too overbearing?  And for that matter, should he even be on medicine if he was smart enough to qualify for gifted classes without the medicine?

I think we as a society are expecting too much out of our kids.  If they somehow don't perform perfectly, we are searching for a diagnosis and a medicine to make them better.  We expect them to get straight A's and conform to our unrelentingly high standards.  We freak out if they miss an assignment.  I think the lesson we need to learn most is that it's OK to fail and sometimes the best learning is born from that failure.  If kids never have to pick themselves up and dust themselves off then try again to do better, how can we expect them to be able to persevere and become functional adults capable of dealing with all the stresses that life can throw at them?  I guess the bottom line is that I am incredibly thankful that my parents were OK with letting me fail and even fall on my face from time to time.  And I am incredibly glad they were there to help pick me back up and encourage me to try again until I got it right because without them I wouldn't be prepared to deal with the life I have to lead now.  I wouldn't be able to see the inevitable failures and be able to not only deal with them but find the motivation in those failures to do better and overcome them.  And for that I am incredibly thankful.  I can only hope that I am blessed with the same patience in dealing with my children so that they too may learn how to deal with life.  One fail at a time.